Мільярдні збитки і борги: чи варто переживати за МАУ

Авіакомпанія МАУ збільшила збиток майже в дев’ять разів до 2,7 мільярда гривень. Як це стало можливим, чи не піде компанія по шляху “Аеросвіту”?

“МАУ — як людина, яка йде по канату між двома хмарочосами. Таку людину може збити навіть легкий вітерець, тому дуже не хотілося б кидатися в неї камінням”, — обережно коментує новину про мільярдні збитки найбільшого українського перевізника співрозмовник ЕП на авіаційному ринку.

“Але хочу підкреслити: повторення сценарію “Аеросвіту” неможливе”, — наголошує він.

Збитки МАУ, про які ЕП дізналася з порядку денного загальних зборів компанії, змусили пасажирів авіакомпанії хвилюватися, хоча факт збитковості МАУ не став сюрпризом для ринку.

Раніше президент авіакомпанії Юрій Мірошников в інтерв’ю Liga.net попереджав, що компанія другий рік поспіль спрацює “в мінус”. Проте він не сказав, наскільки великим він буде.

При цьому в усіх ще свіжий в пам’яті інший негативний кейс — банкрутство компанії “Аеросвіт”, яка так само належала Ігорю Коломойському і була одним з найбільших гравців на ринку. Підприємство забезпечувало третину авіаперевезень за кордон та 70% рейсів всередині країни.

Тоді компанія так само два роки поспіль фіксувала збитки і 2011-й, за рік до банкрутства, закінчила з рекордним негативним показником — майже 1,5 млрд грн або 190 млн дол за тодішнім курсом.

Якщо рахувати в доларах, то збиток МАУ удвічі менший, проте він все одно рекордний для авіакомпанії. До того ж, падіння відбулося на фоні суттєвого збільшення пасажиропотоку, кількості рейсів та інвестицій у розвиток флоту.

Що відбувається в МАУ? Які є загрози і як перевізник планує виходити з кризи?

На початку 2019 року найбільша авіакомпанія України “Міжнародні авіалінії України” оприлюднила результати роботи за 2018 рік. Опубліковані цифри свідчили, що компанія динамічно розвивається і про можливу кризу не йшлося.
За рік МАУ перевезла понад 8 млн пасажирів, що на 15% більше, ніж 2017 року, та виконала 61,5 тис рейсів, перевищивши показник попереднього року майже на 10%.

Компанія також розширила географію міжнародних рейсів і почала виконувати польоти з Києва до Копенгагена, Каїра, Делі і Торонто. Карту внутрішніх маршрутів доповнив рейс Київ-Вінниця.

Крім того, в рамках програми розширення й оновлення флоту перевізник отримав сім літаків. Серед них — три повітряні судна нового для України типу Boeing 777-200 ER, а також чотири середньомагістральні машини Boeing 737-800.

Утім, як виявилося, справи у перевізника йдуть не дуже добре. На фоні суттєвого зростання пасажиропотоку та кількості рейсів МАУ отримала майже 100 млн дол збитку.

Це вже другий невдалий рік для компанії, але якщо у 2017 році її збитки становили 304 млн грн, то за 2018 рік цей показник зріс до 2,7 млрд грн.

У компанії такі результати роботи пояснюють трьома основними факторами.

По-перше, останнім часом суттєво зросла вартість авіаційного пального. “В Україні пальне коштує щонайменше на 70 дол за тонну дорожче, ніж у сусідніх країнах”, — заявили в МАУ.

По-друге, через закритий повітряний простір над окупованим Кримом та Росією збільшилися витрати пального.

“Літаки, що виконують рейси у східному напрямку, витрачають в середньому зайву годину через необхідність оминати закриті зони та, відповідно, використовують більше пального”, — пояснюють у компанії.

По-третє, порушилися графіки поставки літаків Boeing 777-200ER.

“Оскільки судна були заплановані у розкладі, але не прибули до України, компанії довелося перебронювати чимало пасажирів на інші рейси, розмістити їх у готелях та забезпечити харчуванням, що спричинило додаткові витрати”, — розповів представник перевізника.

Ryanair в Україні. Початок

У 2017 році МАУ змінила майже 400-мільйонний прибуток на суттєвий збиток. Саме тоді в Україну почала заходити компанія Ryanair.

Навіть з урахуванням того, що перша спроба ірландського лоукостера виявилася невдалою, МАУ ще тоді була вимушена почати підготовку до перебудови.

“Це безумовно впливає. Є плюси і мінуси. Найбільший ефект від приходу Ryanair — психологічний вплив на мандрівників. Задається нова планка ціни”, — заявляв у лютому в інтерв’ю Liga.net президент МАУ Юрій Мірошников.

Президент МАУ Юрій Мірошников
ФОТО АНДРІЯ ГУДЗЕНКА, LIGA.NET

“Найкоротша і проста відповідь — дуже різко посилилася конкуренція”, — каже директор консалтингової компанії Friendly Avia Support Олександр Ланецький, говорячи про причини збитковості МАУ.

З ним погоджується авіаексперт Богдан Долінце.

“Важливу роль зіграла активізація європейських перевізників, у тому числі лоукостерів. Це змушує українські авіакомпанії створювати нові продукти в бюджетних сегментах перевезень”, — наголошує він.

Натомість юрист Андрій Гук заявляє, що звітність компанії протягом останніх років складно назвати прозорою, тому МАУ може показувати той результат, який захоче.

“МАУ перемогла у спорах щодо так званого авіаційного збору і не сплачує державі два долари з кожного пасажира. Також компанія перестала у великих об’ємах сплачувати “Украероруху” за послуги навігації і вступила у судові спори щодо цього”, — нагадує Гук.

“Крім того, МАУ суттєво оптимізувала свої витрати, отримала знижки від “Борисполя“, бере плату за додаткові послуги на борту — від реєстрації до харчування. Враховуючи все це, витрати на оновлення флоту все ж не дуже пояснюють такі великі збитки”, — наголошує юрист.

Банкрутство чи світле майбутнє

Крім величезних збитків, МАУ також має чималі борги перед партнерами. Точну цифру компанія не називає. “Рівень зобов’язань складно оцінити, оскільки він постійно змінюється”, — кажуть у МАУ.

За різними оцінками, борговий портфель компанії перевищує 1 млрд грн. Сама МАУ частину боргів не визнає та оскаржує їх у суді.

“Бізнес працює дуже динамічно: виконуються одні фінансові зобов’язання, з’являються нові — і з нашого боку, і з боку партнерів. Те, що ми не визнаємо як борг, оскаржуємо в судовому порядку”, — заявляв раніше Мірошников.

Збитки разом з боргами малюють для МАУ не дуже радужні перспективи.

“Ознаки того, що компанія нарощує заборгованість, є, але важко сказати, чи йде якась підготовка до виведення активів. Ми бачимо, що компанія активно розвивається, веде складну і продуману маркетингову політику, покращує сервіси, оновлює флот”, — зазначає Гук.

За його словами, банкрутство компанії за прикладом “Аеросвіту” наразі неможливе.

Президент МАУ заявив, що у 2019 році компанія сконцентрується на стабілізації фінансового становища. “Мета — вихід на беззбитковість”, — відповіли в прес-службі на питання ЕП щодо очікувань на 2019 рік.

Чи застрахована МАУ від банкрутства? Ні, як і будь-яка інша світова авіакомпанія. Прикладів останнім часом вистачає.

Так, у жовтні 2017 року останній рейс виконала Air Berlin, яка була другим після Lufthansa за потужністю німецьким гравцем на ринку авіаперевезень.

У лютому 2019 року така ж доля спіткала авіакомпанію Germania. Причина — дефіцит коштів, спричинений “різким підвищенням цін на гас з одночасним падінням євро до долара”.

Ще один приклад — британська авіакомпанія Flybmi, яка недавно оголосила про припинення роботи у зв’язку з Brexit.

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